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SIOUX FALLS, S.D. - South Dakota's lone representative in the U.S. House, Stephanie Herseth, says she thinks there's a four or five chance in 10 that Ellsworth Air Force Base will remain open.

"My guess is that it comes off the (base closure) list," she said Friday.

But Alex Conant, a spokesman for Sen. John Thune, said it's impossible to lay odds on such things.

Conant said many of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission members will be undecided the morning of the vote, which comes sometime the week of Aug. 22.

"Historically, the odds are against us," he said.

Herseth said at least two of the nine BRAC commissioners are sympathetic to the argument against putting all the nation's B-1 bombers at one base, which would happen if Ellsworth closes. A third commissioner seems sympathetic as well, she told the Argus Leader.

Five votes are needed to remove a base from the closure list.

"I would say we're at three, and we've got the potential to get three more," Herseth said.

Herseth, Thune and Sen. Tim Johnson have been fighting the closure, which could cost the area an estimated 6,800 jobs.

Thune was in Washington this past week to meet with BRAC commissioners, Conant said. The freshman senator focused on a lawsuit that restricts the air space around Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, according to Conant.

If Ellsworth closed, Dyess would be the only home for the B-1, and the air space restrictions could impair training routes at Dyess, Conant said.

In response to a question about fighting in Iraq, Herseth said it's not a rosy picture.

"My assessment is that it has gotten substantially worse, that (with) our misjudgments and our poor planning at the outset, the problems have manifested themselves more severely," she said.

The timetable for a new constitution and another election could allow the U.S. to consider reducing troop levels late next year, Herseth said.

"By the time of the next presidential election, candidates from both sides will be laying out a timetable for when we'll be out," she said. "By 2010, yeah, maybe we'll be out of there."